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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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